Vancity Cruiser Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 August 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twangster Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 I don't think anyone has enough clear vision of where society is heading to accurately guess a date. Once it peaks globally and begins to decline and stays trending downward then at that point in time plus 4 - 6 weeks is when cruise lines can begin to think about starting operations on a limited basis. Until it's in our rear view mirror there will be no cruising. If the cruise lines jump the start line and COVID-19 flares up again then once again cruise ships will be front page news and they can't afford for that to happen. joshgates, Fireman973, Mrs. RoyalMoyal and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fireman973 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 May 29, 2020 that would coincide nicely with our Alaska cruise mworkman 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pima1988 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 I am someone that wants to see the glass half full. Personally, if I lived near a port and could sail with last minute notice, I would kind of be excited. I am pretty sure that they would be offering some great deals to fill up the ships for the 1st few weeks that they go back out because of all of the cancellations and like ChessE4 mentioned, airlines may not be back up in the US. ~ Look at China, it is now the 2nd day in row that they have finally announced no new virus patients. In essence, that would be 4 months from the 1st reporting patient. For us, if people follow guidelines and do the right thing, plus warmer weather, maybe we could be 3 months. That places us at mid June for no new reporting. Now here are the problems I see: Do they do a slow roll out? IE Harmony goes back on line, but smaller ships like Enchantment do not, hoping that they can force passengers onto one ship over another (cabin occupancy). U.S. may open up, but that does not mean Canada will open at the same time. I.E. Anthem, Adventure, Oasis, Grandeur do the NE/Canada flip to Bermuda/Bahamas during the summer. If one of these ports cannot reopen than they will be facing docking issues. Look at Cape Liberty. Anthem docks one day, Adventure another. Hotels. Just like ChessE4 mentioned regarding airlines, the same is true for hotels. Many passengers that cruise come into that area a day prior to the cruise. They may now be stuck with being able to fly in, but not finding a room at any inn since hotels may roll out slower than airlines. or vise a versa. JMPO, but I see them rolling them all out at once regardless of capacity. They will want to make a powerful statement. Plus,, I would think ships are like cars. My hubby is retired military. Everytime he was deployed for 6+ mos. he reminded me that I needed to drive his car every 2 weeks just to keep the engine going, or tires moving. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WAAAYTOOO Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Personally, I do not believe a single word of anything coming out of China. I think the chances that they have -0- new cases is -0-. They've just quit testing. DunkelBierJay, Wnuk, bobroo and 2 others 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyfsu21 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Virgin Scarlet Lady is sailing 8/7/20. I still consider that ambitious but we will see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
basil Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 I have a cruise on April11. I think August 1st, if it is true that some ships might be used as hospitals. ( dont know if that is true, heard a rumor). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WannaCruise Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 28 minutes ago, Pima1988 said: I am someone that wants to see the glass half full. Personally, if I lived near a port and could sail with last minute notice, I would kind of be excited. I am pretty sure that they would be offering some great deals to fill up the ships for the 1st few weeks that they go back out because of all of the cancellations and like ChessE4 mentioned, airlines may not be back up in the US. ~ Look at China, it is now the 2nd day in row that they have finally announced no new virus patients. In essence, that would be 4 months from the 1st reporting patient. For us, if people follow guidelines and do the right thing, plus warmer weather, maybe we could be 3 months. That places us at mid June for no new reporting. Now here are the problems I see: Do they do a slow roll out? IE Harmony goes back on line, but smaller ships like Enchantment do not, hoping that they can force passengers onto one ship over another (cabin occupancy). U.S. may open up, but that does not mean Canada will open at the same time. I.E. Anthem, Adventure, Oasis, Grandeur do the NE/Canada flip to Bermuda/Bahamas during the summer. If one of these ports cannot reopen than they will be facing docking issues. Look at Cape Liberty. Anthem docks one day, Adventure another. Hotels. Just like ChessE4 mentioned regarding airlines, the same is true for hotels. Many passengers that cruise come into that area a day prior to the cruise. They may now be stuck with being able to fly in, but not finding a room at any inn since hotels may roll out slower than airlines. or vise a versa. JMPO, but I see them rolling them all out at once regardless of capacity. They will want to make a powerful statement. Plus,, I would think ships are like cars. My hubby is retired military. Everytime he was deployed for 6+ mos. he reminded me that I needed to drive his car every 2 weeks just to keep the engine going, or tires moving. Definitely helps living near a port as airlines adds an additional challenge. It's definitely good news about China. Let's hope they stay like that and other countries follow with less and less cases. Good points above. For #1...our next cruise is a 4 night on Mariner. Wonder about this ship and Navigator since they mostly hit their private island which is good revenue for Royal. (Ours even hits it twice). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mook1525 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 55 minutes ago, WAAAYTOOO said: Personally, I do not believe a single word of anything coming out of China. I think the chances that they have -0- new cases is -0-. They've just quit testing. sadly this is so true.. They quit testing + I would multiply their death toll by 10. Anyway, This is day 8 since kids school closed.. with no end in sight. getting tired. WAAAYTOOO and DunkelBierJay 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gears Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 16 hours ago, WAAAYTOOO said: Purely a guess. I will go with 1 July 2020 You must be a gambler... WAAAYTOOO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gears Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 I have noticed that I haven't seen an RCL promotional email land in about two weeks +/-. Neesa, WAAAYTOOO and luv2sail 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichelleB1234 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 13 hours ago, Crazycruiser50 said: We just cruised with him the first week of March and are supposed to cruise again on that ship on May 2nd, so trust me I am not happy. Luckily we have an Oct and Nov cruise scheduled too, so hopefully we can roll a FCC over to one of those. Does your friend think they will have Med cruises if cruising doesn't start until August? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MichelleB1234 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 4 hours ago, tonyfsu21 said: I bet this is realistic. Especially for the cruise industry to be back into full operation. I would think that they would be up and running for Christmas at least. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morganno Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 August 2021 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tonyfsu21 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 42 minutes ago, Morganno said: August 2021 Aren’t you the OP that likened the COVID19 to WW2? I think you might have lost some credibility with that assessment, lol. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Phillip Diamond Plus Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 I'm more optimistic: Based on China's cases, the virus started about mid January and on about Feb. 4th the upward curve started to head downward. So maybe from about a month from when it started in USA, it will start declining. My prediction is May 1st for Royal Caribbean to start sailing. But April 11th would be wonderful! Srp431, Fireman973, Neesa and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fireman973 Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 Like someone else posted, with the 125% FCC, if I miss my first cruise due to cancelation by RC it's a win win for me. Lemonade outta lemons ! Neesa and Baked Alaska 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadster Posted March 20, 2020 Report Share Posted March 20, 2020 I'm just hoping that if they do extend their resumption of cruises, they'll push out FCCs or refunds quickly. I'm really trying hard not to cancel my original June sailing and go full-on with my July sailing (Canada/New England), but I worry if I wait too much longer, I won't get the FCC quickly enough, and I'll put a bit of extra financial strain on myself. I'm not very good at this whole patience thing. WAAAYTOOO, Fireman973, Baked Alaska and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lovetocruise2002 Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 2 hours ago, Chadster said: I'm just hoping that if they do extend their resumption of cruises, they'll push out FCCs or refunds quickly. I'm really trying hard not to cancel my original June sailing and go full-on with my July sailing (Canada/New England), but I worry if I wait too much longer, I won't get the FCC quickly enough, and I'll put a bit of extra financial strain on myself. I'm not very good at this whole patience thing. Or maybe Royal will do a good thing like DCL and push back final payment dates by 30 days. Ogilthorpe, Snotarni, Chadster and 1 other 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
spiralqueen Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 I have no idea when it will resume, but I fall around the Labor Day camp. While we currently have a May 2020 cruise booked, I’m 80% sure that will be cancelled so we booked 2 diff refundable options to lock in prices before FCCs drive up prices more. We have Aug 30th and Nov 29th booked. Nov was my idea and August my parents. Holding both to see who (if anyone) is right. JohnK6404 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadster Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 September or later, while definitely possible, would be particularly tough for the cruise industry -- not only would they miss out on the summer travel boom, but...the entirety of the Alaska cruise season would be gone except for a cruise or two. That would be a huge blow. Here's hoping it doesn't come to this! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnK6404 Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 3 hours ago, spiralqueen said: I have no idea when it will resume, but I fall around the Labor Day camp. While we currently have a May 2020 cruise booked, I’m 80% sure that will be cancelled so we booked 2 diff refundable options to lock in prices before FCCs drive up prices more. We have Aug 30th and Nov 29th booked. Nov was my idea and August my parents. Holding both to see who (if anyone) is right. We're hoping our 5/31/20 sailing doesn't get cancelled, but we too plan on booking one in late SEPT or OCT with a refundable deposit just in case! We just have to think about how the potential FCC (if we wait for Royal to cancel to get the 125%) and final payment due date for the newly booked cruise will work! I believe it's currently 30 days from cancellation until we have access to the FCC. Hmmmm.... it may be a tight timeline for us if Royal waits until the last minute to cancel! The other thing that stinks is that we will likely loose out on the better CP sales and dining time slots, etc., the longer we wait to book! 71 days... hopefully! Fireman973, spiralqueen and Snotarni 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jill Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 I heard that RC is starting to send crew home until the end of July. Chris Wong’s vlog on YouTube and someone in a Symphony group on Facebook knows 2 crew members on Oasis that also have said this. I just put a deposit down on an October Symphony in the event my May 2 Symphony gets cancelled which I’m expecting it to be at this point. Anyone else hear this? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TonyK Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 I'm optimistic, but I am not looking to see them resume before the 1st of the year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J-Fitz Posted March 21, 2020 Report Share Posted March 21, 2020 Thinking about it further. August seems really early to resume cruising. I will adjust my time for October 1st 2020 until cruising resumes in a meaningful capacity. WAAAYTOOO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ampurp85 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 So Illinois is a stay at home state as of 5pm on Saturday March 21st. On March 19th we only had 230 cases and 1 death. Today we have 770 and 6 deaths. We had been asked to limit gatherings to 10 or less on March 14th. Sure those who could started working from home and events were cancelled. But lots of people hung out at the malls, shopping centers, grocery stores and fast food places that were deem essential. There are lines for stores out to the parking lot, nobody is keeping their distance. I don't know why its so hard to head instructions. I was convinced that we would be back to our new normal by late May. I am sorry but we probably won't be cruising until late summer or maybe even Labor day. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chadster Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 Here in Maryland, we've had 41 cases announced since yesterday; we're up to 190 as I type this. Two deaths. My school extended our spring break an extra week, and we're starting online coursework this week; they've officially ruled out any return to on-campus learning for the spring semester. Thankfully, I've only got one class to deal with...most of my other work consists of writing. Still no word on when they'll reopen the Cruise Maryland terminal, though I don't sail out of Baltimore until December; my upcoming cruise is from Cape Liberty in either June or July. Trying to stay upbeat (I really feel uncomfortable saying "positive"!) about my chances, but I'm also a realist. If there's ANY risk to people still present when cruise time comes, I'll give up sailing for the good of the public health...though I really hope it doesn't come to that. WAAAYTOOO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ampurp85 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 My issue is the lack of awareness. My 79 y/o grandmother and her friends went out to vote this past Tues. Same for venturing out to stores even though they all watch the news, several times a day, and had been warned. My 36-44 year old friends have been hanging out at Starbucks, Chipotle, home depot and anything that is open. Crowds and crowds of people have more than doubled our cases...known cases...in a mere two days. We could have flatten the curve and be cruising by May imho....but things are getting worse. I am frustrated because very few people are taking this seriously, yet are the same ones who seem to be the biggest complainers. WAAAYTOOO and Chadster 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jticarruthers Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 10 hours ago, Ampurp85 said: We could have flatten the curve and be cruising by May imho....but things are getting worse. Flattening the curve is the opposite of what you are describing, the intent of flattening the curve is to lessen the peak number of cases and deaths to lower the load on the medical community ... the trade-off is that the entire "process" last much longer. Either way things were going to and are going to get worse, its just a matter of a high peak or a long arc. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
711Dave Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 So here is what I think is going to happen. Time frame obviously unknown. The new cases and active cases of COVID-19 must get to ZERO (0) before things restart. Right now we are still in the upward arc of new cases (the US had 1254 new cases from 7:43pm to 7:43am overnight per JHU). When the new cases start to drop that should be the top of the curve and an equal time period down for the cases to get to ZERO (0). However, the down time will probably be less due to newly approved medical reasons. So assuming (a bad thing to do) a January 2020 start and a July 2020 peak then Feb. 2021 is not out of the question, but more realistic time would be November 2020. Then another month or so for repositioning, restocking, recalling crew and disinfecting (again) the ships. That said my best guess is around the Spring of 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steverk Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 My guess: By mid April, cases of the Mexican Beer Virus will be trending down dramatically, both in the US and worldwide. How long after that until the bureaucrats and authorities decide it is safe to go outside? I don't know. However, Royal will start sailing as soon as they can afterward. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcdave Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 With a vaccine more than a year away I am thinking that cruising of the past is at least 2 years away. However once an antidote is developed and distributed may be limited cruises would start. I would think startup will be made up of short (5 days or less) duration cruises. I also would think that Oasis class size ships will be used for sea day and private island excursions. Most “itinerary” destinations will be hesitant for these ships to dock in their ports until a proven vaccine/cure for the virus is found. With all of the unknowns – when will drugs be developed to prevent/cure the virus, how fast does the virus mutate, is this going to be a seasonal event - all bets are off until more answers are found. jticarruthers 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCIfan1912 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 If this lasts 18 months all of these cruise lines will be completely out of business. They can't survive that long. If this late 18 months to 2 years we are gonna wish we were dead because there will be absolutely nothing left to the economy with about 80% unemployment. This will end much earlier or be under control much earlier than. If only the adults had been charge from the beginning this would look much different than it does now. MichelleB1234 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JohnK6404 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 Without a crystal ball, we can’t know definitively how long this will last. I definitely believe the summer sailings are in serious jeopardy of being cancelled. When they do start up again, hopefully sooner than later, I’m sure there will be fewer sailings and/or very limited itineraries until these closed ports start to open up again. Hey, I’m game for only sea days, Labadee and Coco Cay for now! Ogilthorpe, DunkelBierJay and Fireman973 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ampurp85 Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 @jticarruthers Exactly what I meant, notice I said we could have.......If people had headed the warning we could get down to fewer cases in 2 to 3 months. But people aren't doing what is being asked to slow the virus. Which will lead to a desperation to get things back to normal and will cause more problems in the long run. We are very much still in the dark, cold and flu season starts back again in late October. This virus appeared in November so who is to say it won't repeat itself? That could mean no cruising or traveling for 18 months+, I don't want that at all. Best case we end up with only "local" itineraries for a while. I don't mind cruising to only Cococay or the Bahamas but that can get old real fast. JohnK6404 and Ogilthorpe 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancity Cruiser Posted March 22, 2020 Report Share Posted March 22, 2020 Most cruise lines have at least 1 private island. If they are able start some short cruises where screened and cleared passengers can be contained to the ship and private islands only (only 1 ship in port at a time), perhaps they can weather the storm. I believe it will be a minimum 6 months (most likely longer) before cruising starts with any kind of regularity and I don't think any corporation no matter how large can survive that with no income. RCIfan1912 and MichelleB1234 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JimnKathy Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 We just booked an Alaskan cruise out of Seattle on Ovation of the Seas for a June 5 departure...so June 1 it is for our best guesstimate. Fireman973 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ampurp85 Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 @JimnKathy They seem to be still selling cruises for April, May etc. Whether or not you can book the cruise has no bearings on whether or not we will be cruising. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny429 Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 2 hours ago, JimnKathy said: We just booked an Alaskan cruise out of Seattle on Ovation of the Seas for a June 5 departure...so June 1 it is for our best guesstimate. I hope you get to go. https://www.cruisecritic.com/news/5190/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
J_Keeble Posted March 23, 2020 Report Share Posted March 23, 2020 September 2020 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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