Fernas Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Since we know that at this time of year Asia presents, from time to time, strong viruses that compromise the respiratory system (Sars, Covid-19, etc.) would you be afraid to commit to a February 2021 Southeast Asia cruise? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianmorris Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 I personally wouldn’t be hesitant to book an Asia sailing. COVID-19 has so far not even come close to the flu in total number of cases or deaths this year. Not saying the outbreak isn’t bad, maybe just not as bad as it initially sounds. Also if things get unsafe, you see cruise lines taking steps to cancel cruises, implement screenings, and issue refunds. I haven’t been to Asia yet but it is definitely on my bucket list. Hope you figure out what works best for you! Sweety, Baked Alaska and Neesa 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princevaliantus Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 12 minutes ago, brianmorris said: I personally wouldn’t be hesitant to book an Asia sailing. COVID-19 has so far not even come close to the flu in total number of cases or deaths this year. Not saying the outbreak isn’t bad, maybe just not as bad as it initially sounds. Also if things get unsafe, you see cruise lines taking steps to cancel cruises, implement screenings, and issue refunds. I haven’t been to Asia yet but it is definitely on my bucket list. Hope you figure out what works best for you! I don't know where you get your information from, but as of today: - 2020 Flu deaths total is 2,100 - 2020 Coronavirus death total is 2,160 ... surpassing flu deaths. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KristiZ Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 21 minutes ago, princevaliantus said: I don't know where you get your information from, but as of today: - 2020 Flu deaths total is 2,100 - 2020 Coronavirus death total is 2,160 ... surpassing flu deaths. Actually, the CDC preliminary estimate of flu death in the 2019-2020 season 14,000 at the low end of the scale. Where did you see 2100?https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm brianmorris and Baked Alaska 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianmorris Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 14 minutes ago, princevaliantus said: I don't know where you get your information from, but as of today: - 2020 Flu deaths total is 2,100 - 2020 Coronavirus death total is 2,160 ... surpassing flu deaths. According to the CDC there have been between 14,000 and 36,000 deaths from this year’s flu. Link for my source here: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm SteveinSC 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnickerTail Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 21 minutes ago, princevaliantus said: I don't know where you get your information from, but as of today: - 2020 Flu deaths total is 2,100 - 2020 Coronavirus death total is 2,160 ... surpassing flu deaths. 1 minute ago, KristiZ said: Actually, the CDC preliminary estimate of flu death in the 2019-2020 season 14,000 at the low end of the scale. Where did you see 2100?https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm And that's 14k in the US and 2160 COVID-19 worldwide. brianmorris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princevaliantus Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, KristiZ said: Actually, the CDC preliminary estimate of flu death in the 2019-2020 season 14,000 at the low end of the scale. Where did you see 2100?https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm Note that I stated "2020" - Both of these numbers are from January 1, 2020 and fwd and does not take into consideration of those deaths from COVID-19 that are not being accounted for those disposed bodies that are and have not been reported by China. UPDATE: COVID-19 death just changed to 2,162 reported deaths as two passengers aboard the Diamond Princess died which was just announced. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WannaCruise Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 I'm more afraid if being denied boarding because one of us caught a cold right before the cruise (not Asia). But yes, personally we wouldn't book a cruise in that part of the world for awhile. sk8erguy1978 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princevaliantus Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, WannaCruise said: I'm more afraid if being denied boarding because one of us caught a cold right before the cruise. Agreed!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monctonguy Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 It wouldn't stop me from booking a year away....but I would defn have some flexibility and cancelation insurance built into my trip that I normally don't do or worry about. Baked Alaska 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princevaliantus Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, monctonguy said: It wouldn't stop me from booking a year away....but I would defn have some flexibility and cancelation insurance built into my trip that I normally don't do or worry about. good point...also, you can consider booking with a "refundable" deposit!! This way, you are guaranteed a refund!! monctonguy 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnickerTail Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 10 minutes ago, princevaliantus said: Note that I stated "2020" - Both of these numbers are from January 1, 2020 and fwd and does not take into consideration of those deaths from COVID-19 that are not being accounted for those disposed bodies that are and have not been reported by China. UPDATE: COVID-19 death just changed to 2,162 reported deaths as two passengers aboard the Diamond Princess died which was just announced. What is the source of 2020 flu deaths you're using? And is it worldwide? I get that China is under-reporting - they under-report everything. But if you are saying that there have been only 2k "normal" flu deaths including China - the number of normal flu deaths is also under-reported (China likes to report deaths using any underlying chronic condition instead of the acute disease that exacerbated it). KristiZ 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sk8erguy1978 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 8 minutes ago, WannaCruise said: I'm more afraid if being denied boarding because one of us caught a cold right before the cruise (not Asia). I would drink an entire bottle of DayQuil, take lots of decongestant meds, speak slowly and keep answers short, and hold back every cough and sneeze possible. #gettingonthatship WannaCruise, Balsam and Okgladgal 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princevaliantus Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnickerTail said: What is the source of 2020 flu deaths you're using? And is it worldwide? I get that China is under-reporting - they under-report everything. But if you are saying that there have been only 2k "normal" flu deaths including China - the number of normal flu deaths is also under-reported (China likes to report deaths using any underlying chronic condition instead of the acute disease that exacerbated it). Per the CDC: According to CDC, 4.6 million flu cases have been diagnosed so far this year (2020)—up from 2.6 million in early December...These flu cases have resulted in roughly 39,000 hospitalizations and 2,100 deaths from flu, according to CDC. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnickerTail Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, princevaliantus said: Per the CDC: According to CDC, 4.6 million flu cases have been diagnosed so far this year (2020)—up from 2.6 million in early December...These flu cases have resulted in roughly 39,000 hospitalizations and 2,100 deaths from flu, according to CDC. And the link? Because when I Google that phrase, I get an article from December 27, 2019. The CDC chart in the links above indicated that the uptick didn't start until January. Meaning the bulk of hospitalizations and deaths occurred in the 2020 part of the 2019-2020 flu season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princevaliantus Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, SnickerTail said: And the link? Because when I Google that phrase, I get an article from December 27, 2019. The CDC chart in the links above indicated that the uptick didn't start until January. Meaning the bulk of hospitalizations and deaths occurred in the 2020 part of the 2019-2020 flu season. If you go to the CDC site and do the search, that's where you will find it as CDC will give you statistics. Correct on the 2020 part of the 2019-2020 season which totaled the 2,100 death so far for 2020 year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnickerTail Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, princevaliantus said: If you go to the CDC site and do the search, that's where you will find it as CDC will give you statistics. Correct on the 2020 part of the 2019-2020 season which totaled the 2,100 death so far for 2020 year. Again, the CDC site does not agree with you, as the link above from KristiZ and brianmorris shows. If you provide the link to the article where you pulled that quote from it should clarify things. Baked Alaska 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princevaliantus Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, SnickerTail said: Again, the CDC site does not agree with you, as the link above from KristiZ and brianmorris shows. If you provide the link to the article where you pulled that quote from it should clarify things. And again, put in the legwork as I did and you will find it. Poolside 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnickerTail Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, princevaliantus said: And again, put in the legwork as I did and you will find it. I did find the quote.... You changed the dates to support your original statement - it doesn't say what you say it does and you don't want to admit you were wrong. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princevaliantus Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, SnickerTail said: I did find the quote.... You changed the dates to support your original statement - it doesn't say what you say it does and you don't want to admit you were wrong. Try CDC site where I got my information on their weekly surveillance reports I receive. I'll leave it at that. Take it with a grain of salt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ellcee Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Scared, no? Do I think it's the best idea at the moment, still no. February '21, a lot can happen so as long as you have trip insurance that would cover, go for it. brianmorris 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allen2 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Other thoughts about booking the SE Asia cruise: (1 )Unrest in Hong Kong (2) Serious riots one year ago in Sri Lanka. Went a year ago, and would be seriously reluctant to book ahead at this point in time, even without the Corona Virus Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baked Alaska Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, princevaliantus said: And again, put in the legwork as I did and you will find it. Please post your link. MMWR? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princevaliantus Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 minute ago, Baked Alaska said: Please post your link. MMWR? Try CDC site where I got my information on their weekly surveillance reports I receive. I'll leave it at that. Take it with a grain of salt. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baked Alaska Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Yes, thank you. Are you using the MMWR as your source? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WAAAYTOOO Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 I will definitely not be taking any Asian-originated (or terminated) cruises in the foreseeable future. Baked Alaska 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spang1974 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 1 hour ago, princevaliantus said: Try CDC site where I got my information on their weekly surveillance reports I receive. I'll leave it at that. Take it with a grain of salt. Flu season started in 2019, so comparing numbers from 2020 only is misleading. Influenza has definitely killed more than 14,000 people since beginning of the flu season which started in 2019. https://www.aappublications.org/news/2020/02/14/flu021420 Baked Alaska and bossdog421 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zacharius Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 4 minutes ago, WAAAYTOOO said: I will definitely not be taking any Asian-originated (or terminated) cruises in the foreseeable future. Even something like a Middle East/South Asia cruise? I can't imagine that being too risky. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WAAAYTOOO Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Zacharius said: Even something like a Middle East/South Asia cruise? I can't imagine that being too risky. Middle east, yes. South Asia ? No Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brianmorris Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, WAAAYTOOO said: Middle east, yes. I’ve been tempted to book Middle East the last few weeks because those prices are INCREDIBLE. WAAAYTOOO, shaydav19 and KristiZ 1 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhageerah Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 minutes ago, brianmorris said: I’ve been tempted to book Middle East the last few weeks because those prices are INCREDIBLE. I forgot to exclude them recently on a search and was absolutely amazed at how cheap they were!!! If the prices here were that cheap I could be pinnacle in NO time!!! WAAAYTOOO 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bhageerah Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 A 16 day cruise in a balcony for less than $1400pp?? Unheard of here in the USA!!! https://www.royalcaribbean.com/cruises/itinerary/16-night-suez-canal-from-dubai-on-jewel/JW16DXB-3170259218?sail-date=2020-03-23¤cy=USD&country=USA&ecid=sl_mdt_shrdln__4645 brianmorris and WAAAYTOOO 1 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
twangster Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 The Flu is under reported in the US and it's BIG business here. Drug manufacturers make billions of dollars from the flu. No wonder there isn't a permanent cure, big business doesn't want the flu eliminated. This is why the CDC estimates between 14,000 and 36,000 have died from it in the US so far this flu season but they don't really know. Think about it... is it 14,000 deaths or 36,000 deaths? That's a huge difference. Plus the data they do estimate from is extrapolated from just 8.5% of the US population. So take CDC numbers with a huge grain of salt because they have very low accuracy. As such a developed nation we really don't do a very good job of tracking or handling the flu. Doctor's are not required to report it. Most people who get it go to the store and spend $20 - $50 on OTC flu drugs. Everyone who is infected with the flu is allowed to wander about and infect everyone else. Can't miss church or work, better spread this virus around. Ride the bus with the flu? Sure! Why not? At the moment there is much greater reliability in COVID-19 reporting and tracking in China then there ever has been of the flu in the US. Flu statistics are just a little better than throwing a dart at a dart board. For this reason you can't compare the numbers of flu versus COVID-19 that is available on the internet using a google search because the flu numbers have such terrible accuracy. From the CDC website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm This web page provides weekly, preliminary estimates of the cumulative in-season numbers of flu illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States. CDC does not know the exact number of people who have been sick and affected by influenza because influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the U.S. However, CDC has estimated the burden of flu since 2010 using a mathematical model that is based on data collected through the U.S. Influenza Surveillance System, a network that covers approximately 8.5% of the U.S. population (~27 million people). Doctors in the US don't want the flu eliminated either. Those 12,000,000 -17,000,000 (that's millions) of doctor visits are each billable events, more than the simple co-pay most of us pay, that's just the amount we pay, not the amount the doctor bills. The graphic above is a poster for buying stock in the US health care business. Bottom line: Want to get sick? Go to your doctor during flu season. Do you see them sanitizing those magazines in the waiting room? How about the door knob for their office? Or the arm rest on the chairs? Want to reduce the chances of getting sick? Go on a cruise. uniongodess, Matt, JLMoran and 4 others 2 1 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigken Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 7 hours ago, princevaliantus said: I don't know where you get your information from, but as of today: - 2020 Flu deaths total is 2,100 - 2020 Coronavirus death total is 2,160 ... surpassing flu deaths. Sorry to tell you but as of last week 26 million people had the flu so far and 140000 fourteen thousand deaths way more then 2100 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigken Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Just now, Bigken said: Sorry to tell you but as of last week 26 million people had the flu so far and 140000 fourteen thousand deaths way more then 2100 Look it up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
princevaliantus Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 13 minutes ago, Bigken said: Sorry to tell you but as of last week 26 million people had the flu so far and 140000 fourteen thousand deaths way more then 2100 Sorry to tell you that you are not following the story correctly..your numbers reflect 2019 - 2020 flu season...my numbers are as of January 1, 2020 and fwd as correctly stated for the time frame indicated.. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srp431 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 Only caribbean cruises for us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ampurp85 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 I just want to say to the original question when it comes to Asia and the Middle East I would always exercise caution. Both places have a highly concentrated area of people without the same access to sanitary resources. If it is not CV it could be anything, not to mention all the political/social aspects. With that being said you could just as easily catch something and die anywhere. I hate the phrase YOLO but it is true. Book what you want just make sure you prepare for any outcome. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mac66 Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 I would guess that the WU Flu would have run its course by 2021 so you'd be relatively safe booking for 2021. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bigken Posted February 20, 2020 Report Share Posted February 20, 2020 3 hours ago, twangster said: The Flu is under reported in the US and it's BIG business here. Drug manufacturers make billions of dollars from the flu. No wonder there isn't a permanent cure, big business doesn't want the flu eliminated. This is why the CDC estimates between 14,000 and 36,000 have died from it in the US so far this flu season but they don't really know. Think about it... is it 14,000 deaths or 36,000 deaths? That's a huge difference. Plus the data they do estimate from is extrapolated from just 8.5% of the US population. So take CDC numbers with a huge grain of salt because they have very low accuracy. As such a developed nation we really don't do a very good job of tracking or handling the flu. Doctor's are not required to report it. Most people who get it go to the store and spend $20 - $50 on OTC flu drugs. Everyone who is infected with the flu is allowed to wander about and infect everyone else. Can't miss church or work, better spread this virus around. Ride the bus with the flu? Sure! Why not? At the moment there is much greater reliability in COVID-19 reporting and tracking in China then there ever has been of the flu in the US. Flu statistics are just a little better than throwing a dart at a dart board. For this reason you can't compare the numbers of flu versus COVID-19 that is available on the internet using a google search because the flu numbers have such terrible accuracy. From the CDC website: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/preliminary-in-season-estimates.htm This web page provides weekly, preliminary estimates of the cumulative in-season numbers of flu illnesses, medical visits, hospitalizations, and deaths in the United States. CDC does not know the exact number of people who have been sick and affected by influenza because influenza is not a reportable disease in most areas of the U.S. However, CDC has estimated the burden of flu since 2010 using a mathematical model that is based on data collected through the U.S. Influenza Surveillance System, a network that covers approximately 8.5% of the U.S. population (~27 million people). Doctors in the US don't want the flu eliminated either. Those 12,000,000 -17,000,000 (that's millions) of doctor visits are each billable events, more than the simple co-pay most of us pay, that's just the amount we pay, not the amount the doctor bills. The graphic above is a poster for buying stock in the US health care business. Bottom line: Want to get sick? Go to your doctor during flu season. Do you see them sanitizing those magazines in the waiting room? How about the door knob for their office? Or the arm rest on the chairs? Want to reduce the chances of getting sick? Go on a cruise. Ha agree 100% Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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