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coronavirus causes quarantined cruise ship


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On 2/13/2020 at 9:29 AM, coneyraven said:

I did see an article elsewhere that the crew of the Diamond Princess will be receiving 2 months off WITH pay as a way of saying Thank You for going through all this.

??? Does that mean the ship will be not sailing for two months?  That’s a lot of time to clean and disinfect. 

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3 hours ago, Psycho and Barb said:

??? Does that mean the ship will be not sailing for two months?  That’s a lot of time to clean and disinfect. 

If I had to guess, based on stuff I’ve learned listening to the Behind the Crew Door podcast, they’ll probably do two things:

First, ask some group of people coming due for their own vacation to stay on an extra two months. According to the podcast this isn’t uncommon on an individual basis. This will likely get spread across the fleet to minimize the impact on any one ship.

Second, some of the people coming back from vacation will be reassigned to Diamond Princess. Not 100% of the crew needed, but a decent amount.

Also realize that this is probably going to be done in the context of those already coming due for vacation time off; people who just came back before this happened likely won’t get this benefit, or if they do it won’t be given until their contract runs its course. I’d be very surprised if the entire ship crew was put on furlough, but I suppose it’s possible depending on the level of stress and strain this has placed on the whole crew.

 

EDIT - Forgot the second part of step 2; some of the people who were extended will also be reassigned to Diamond Princess, likely those who previously worked on her and have some familiarity with her.

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I'm not down playing  the corona virus because it does seem to be very contagious and if not contained, could be devastating, but ....

In effect its mortality is no more severe than the flu. Worldwide the flu kills about a quarter million people each year. So far, the corona virus is at about 1,800.

 

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As a side note.

I noticed RCCL has cancelled several sailings in the far east due to the corona virus. Other cruse lines have done the same. Financial reports from the cruise lines are predicting lower revenues as a result.

  • Do you think the threat of disease and illness will turn people away from cruising?
  • Will cruise line stocks suffer?
  • Will cruise lines start deep discounts to lure people despite the 'risk of sickness'?
  • Can cruisers expect more strenuous screening for illness before or after cruising?
  • Will general SOP's for ship cleanliness be more stringent?
  • Will this put more demand on ship crews or open new job opportunities  in infection control specialists on ships much like hospitals use to reduce or prevent nosocomial infections?
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2 hours ago, Ditchdoc said:

As a side note.

I noticed RCCL has cancelled several sailings in the far east due to the corona virus. Other cruse lines have done the same. Financial reports from the cruise lines are predicting lower revenues as a result.

  • Do you think the threat of disease and illness will turn people away from cruising?
  • Will cruise line stocks suffer?
  • Will cruise lines start deep discounts to lure people despite the 'risk of sickness'?
  • Can cruisers expect more strenuous screening for illness before or after cruising?
  • Will general SOP's for ship cleanliness be more stringent?
  • Will this put more demand on ship crews or open new job opportunities  in infection control specialists on ships much like hospitals use to reduce or prevent nosocomial infections?

To my opinion its all a matter of trends in number of new cases but anyway some impact we will see for the short term. It can all changed id such case will be found on another ship in a different region.

So here is what I think : 

  • Do you think the threat of disease and illness will turn people away from cruising? - Some people yes , mainly it might impact new cruisers 
  • Will cruise line stocks suffer? - Short range yes , long range I wish I new 
  • Will cruise lines start deep discounts to lure people despite the 'risk of sickness'? - Again for the short term you can see some good discounts for long term not yet.
  • Can cruisers expect more strenuous screening for illness before or after cruising? - Maybe checking everyone fever.
  • Will general SOP's for ship cleanliness be more stringent? - The might clean more and invoke N virus protocols ...
  • Will this put more demand on ship crews or open new job opportunities  in infection control specialists on ships much like hospitals use to reduce or prevent nosocomial infections?
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53 minutes ago, twangster said:

Confused.  The CMO in the video states the air circulation system is not believed to be a source of transmission.  

I stated it a source of concern, given the 1st hand account of a number of passengers claim, they never left their cabin & had room service; and yet, tested positive....their belief, recycle ventilation may not have been adequate. Prompting the reason why Dr. Tarling felt the need to address this valid concern.

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9 minutes ago, Zambia-Zaire said:

I stated it a source of concern, given the 1st hand account of a number of passengers claim, they never left their cabin & had room service; and yet, tested positive....their belief, recycle ventilation may not have been adequate. Prompting the reason why Dr. Tarling felt the need to address this valid concern.

The most recent increases have been believed to be spread between cabin mates.  Wife has it and spreads it to husband in same cabin sort of thing.  

"These health authorities state there is no current evidence the illness spreads through the air ventilation systems.  Out of an abundance of caution we have maximized fresh air into all cabins".   

Guests have also been seen talking across balcony dividers with neighbors.  

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22 minutes ago, twangster said:

The most recent increases have been believed to be spread between cabin mates.  Wife has it and spreads it to husband in same cabin sort of thing.  

"These health authorities state there is no current evidence the illness spreads through the air ventilation systems.  Out of an abundance of caution we have maximized fresh air into all cabins".   

Guests have also been seen talking across balcony dividers with neighbors.  

Correct...I made note in my original post, maximizing fresh air helps...which suggest, they realize the need to maximize fresh air versus recycling air...a lesson learned on their behalf possibly. Filtering is also key.

As far as human2human contact...that's inevitable; however, apparently some of these couples didn't have the virus, as they confined themselves to their cabin; and yet, contracted the virus some how. That is concerning...so one has to take their account under consideration. Which is just one possible mode of transmitting Dr. Tarling felt the need to address & reassure the public.

The situation is no doubt fluid, as the cruise lines learn more, how to combat & prevent such an occurence. Good info to be aware of, for cruisers to safe guard themselves & fellow cruisers.

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19 minutes ago, Zambia-Zaire said:

As far as human2human contact...that's inevitable; however, apparently some of these couples didn't have the virus, as they confined themselves to their cabin; and yet, contracted the virus some how. That is concerning...so one has to take their account under consideration. Which is just one possible mode of transmitting Dr. Tarling felt the need to address & reassure the public.

They didn't think they had the virus.  Very few were tested initially.  Once they began testing more, surprise, they found more were infected.  That's one of the struggles with CV-19 - some carriers exhibit no symptoms.  

 

20 minutes ago, Zambia-Zaire said:

maximizing fresh air helps...which suggest, they realize the need to maximize fresh air versus recycling air.

No evidence of that.  They did it out of an abundance of caution.  You can't extrapolate false information from that.

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9 minutes ago, twangster said:

No evidence of that.  They did it out of an abundance of caution.  You can't extrapolate false information from that.

Not sure I follow...how am I extrapolating false information, when Dr. Tarling himself explain the reasoning behind pumping in fresh air versus just recycling air. Out of caution yes, because of their understanding of possible modes of transmitting...they didn't just reach that particular conclusion out of thin air...no pun intended. They obviously realize some of the methods employed may not have been fully adequate & made proper adjustments as the proceed along. The increase volume of fresh air ventilation is just one of those adjustment they made, that he stated they didn't employ initially; so, not sure why you feel I'm extrapolating anything from what he said.

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4 minutes ago, Zambia-Zaire said:

Not sure I follow...how am I extrapolating false information, when Dr. Tarling himself explain the reasoning behind pumping in fresh air versus just recycling air. Out of caution yes, because of their understanding of possible modes of transmitting...they didn't just reach that particular conclusion out of thin air...no pun intended. They obviously realize some of the methods employed may not have been fully adequate & made proper adjustments as the proceed along. The increase volume of fresh air ventilation is just one of those adjustment they made, that he stated they didn't employ initially; so, not sure why you feel I'm extrapolating anything from what he said.

Because you are stating it as fact.  it is not fact.  He is simply trying to show they are exceeding what they have been told is required to dispel fear from people trashing cruise ships on social media.  You yourself offered "major source of concern".  It's not a major source of concern, rather they made an adjustment just in case.  

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??? That is a major source if concern, when attempting reduce the volume of spread/infections, that is obviously serious enough that governments are closing off ports to some of the ships...reason why they made the adjustment for that procedure. I'm personally not faulting cruise lines...they are forced to house these passengers, the best they can; because, these countries are denying entry.

You seem to be implying I'm in the category of blaming cruise line for this circumstance...not sure how you're falsely extrapolating that opinion.

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There are many ways to transmit a virus. Droplet transmission in the air by cough or sneeze or simply talking. Body fluids via blood, urine, semen. Via vectors such as animals and insects. By infected food. Some virus can simply waif like smoke through the air from one open window into another. 

Some virus can withstand extreme heat and cold and can live on various surfaces for days.

These quarantined individuals do eat. It has been said they leave their rooms for brief walks on deck. Their food is being prepared by ships staff. This staff is working together is unknown groups exposing each other and perhaps everything they touch, including serving dishes and food, carts used for transportation and so on.

The details of corona virus and how it spreads does not seem to be known.

So many individuals confined to a relatively small space, in my mind, makes it inevitable that every susceptible individual will be infected sooner or later by some means if they stay confined.

The choices are:

Expose every one, take care of everyone as well as possible, let God sort them out. This is the expedient method.

Leave them in their current environment, trying to stay isolated, until the all become exposed anyway. Trying to stay isolated just prolongs the process on the slim hope some few will not become exposed. This is what was tried with more and more becoming infected every day it seems.

Get them all off the ship and quarantined in a better facility  where the spread can actually be controlled. In the process of moving a few thousand people you run the risk of exposing others during transport. This has been done with some people. Now ambulances, buses, airplanes and who knows what have been exposed and have to be decontaminated while hoping no one else is exposed in the process. The cost is enormous.

A virus can be insidious. It can live for a long time. It can lie dormant and resurface after years.

Its not a pretty picture.

 

 

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I agree Zambia-Zaire, for starters, as memory serves me, conditioned air is only fed into the cabins, there is no return vent to circulate air in individual cabins. That air makes its way from the cabin to the passageway, complete maybe with the virus, and then what ?!?

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2 hours ago, Jzx1103 said:

Well this probably answers the question as to why the Virus spreading was rampant on the Diamond Princess

Hmmm.  He may have some valid points but he isn't well liked within his own government it seems.  No one wanted him there and it seems someone was working hard to keep him away.  

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I know nothing about this man or his professional credentials, but as a Safety Engineer, I will say that all of his concerns and criticisms (if accurate) are sound.  If the ship, in fact, has/had not established effective green, red and yellow zones, there is no way to effectively control the spread of any contagion or stressor.

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This is a good example of taken the right decision and implement it wrongly.

I still think with the number of people you had on the ship it was the right decision to conduct the quarantine on the ship but they quarantine only the passengers ...  The crew was at quarantined at all.

To do it right they should have not going with the easy way of letting the same crew continue to prepare and serve the meals of the passengers while I think they should have brought the food from the outside and serve it by the quarantine team.  

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As a Paramedic, Nurse, Rescue Diver, Swift-water Rescue, HazMat Tech ...etc ... I have had some exposure to decontamination procedures and am familiar with the zoned (red, yellow, green) approach.

In my opinion, the entire ship was the red zone, Protective equipment/DeCon area would be the just out side the ship (the pier) with the green area outside that.(the street)

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12 minutes ago, Ditchdoc said:

As a Paramedic, Nurse, Rescue Diver, Swift-water Rescue, HazMat Tech ...etc ... I have had some exposure to decontamination procedures and am familiar with the zoned (red, yellow, green) approach.

In my opinion, the entire ship was the red zone, Protective equipment/DeCon area would be the just out side the ship (the pier) with the green area outside that.(the street)

Yes, apparently that was the case

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18 hours ago, Ditchdoc said:

Cruise line stocks fall after State Department urges citizens not to take cruises in Asia

 

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/cruise-line-stocks-fall-after-state-department-urges-citizens-not-to-take-cruises-in-asia-2020-02-21

Think RCCL is down 10%.

Marketwatch is being a bit click-bait-y here. The entire market worldwide is down over the fears being generated by this disease. I follow Apple (AAPL) closely since I have a decent amount of stock with them for retirement. As of right now, it's dropped from it's high of $327.85 (that was reached exactly one week ago) to $295.06 -- also a 10% drop.

I can't think of one big, multi-national company that doesn't have a strong dependency on China for manufacturing and assembly -- pretty much every electronics company, a bunch of clothing brands, machine parts suppliers, the list goes on. Most of those companies have boxed themselves in through their dependence on the high-scale manufacturing and assembly they all depend on from companies like Pegatron and Foxconn, with their city-sized assembly plants in the Shenzhen region and elsewhere in China. If China truly ends up getting ravaged by this disease as time goes on, there's going to be far worse drops in the stock market than what's happening from the cruise industry losing a bunch of ports of call.

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The DOW is down.  All stocks are taking a hit from this.  The stock market is driven by emotion more so than any other factor.  Logic and facts play a role but to a lesser degree.  

Look at the DOW index:

1049157153_DOW2-26-202025day.jpeg.c2792a1912eff90d21ceb939fe08e963.jpeg

Compare that to RCCL stock:

1348474602_RCCL5day2-20-2020.jpeg.a2d7a67f41c530572a842b19b6ad3e3a.jpeg

They both have trended downward, took a small cliff dive on Feb. 24 and then continued a down position since.  

Consequently you can take the market watch article, substitute almost any stock in place of RCCL and the article reads the same.  

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