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Where is Odyssey of the seas going?


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16 hours ago, twangster said:

I'm not sure that Oasis returning to Bayonne is a given.  It all depends on 2020 bookings and revenue.  They have to reposition to and from Bayonne empty which is a major revenue hit.  It will take a lot of revenue simply to overcome that hit twice to the books.  Oasis earned $404M in 2018 or $1.1M per day.   Assuming 3 days lost moving to Bayonne and 3 days lost moving back to Florida that's a $6.6M revenue hit plus operating costs (crew salary, fuel, etc).

Same argument moving Anthem to Florida - minimum 3 day sailing with no revenue.  Anthem earned $371M in 2018 or just over $1M per day.  It's a $3M revenue hit to move her to Florida plus operating costs.   

Why do they have to reposition empty? Is it something to do with that law about travel between US ports? 

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19 minutes ago, FionaMG said:

Why do they have to reposition empty? Is it something to do with that law about travel between US ports? 

The Passenger Vessel Services Act or PVSA does not allow a foreign ship to transport guests between different US ports without stopping at a "distant foreign port".  As far as US law is considered, a cruise ship registered in the Bahamas or Panama is a foreign ship even if the company operating that ship has it's headquarters in Miami.  

Many countries have such maritime laws and air carriers have the same restrictions which is why you can't fly Air Canada from Los Angles to New York but you can fly them from a US city to a Canadian city.  You don't hear about the maritime laws in other countries as much because few countries have the cruise market that the US does.  

In the case of Oasis, moving from Florida to New York with guests would violate the PVSA.  A common "distant foreign port" is the ABC islands but for Oasis to head that far South and turn around to go that far North just doesn't make sense so they'll have to reposition without guests.

This occurred this past weekend for Harmony, Allure and Mariner.   Harmony moved from Ft. Lauderdale to Canaveral, Allure moved from Miami to Ft. Lauderdale and Mariner moved from Miami to Canaveral.  In all cases they had to drop their existing guests from the previous cruise in the same port where they picked them up, then they had to sail empty to their new home port later in the day.

Puerto Rico has a special waiver in place that allows cruise ships to carry guests when repositioning between the US mainland and Puerto Rico.  

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3 hours ago, twangster said:

A common "distant foreign port" is the ABC islands but for Oasis to head that far South and turn around to go that far North just doesn't make sense so they'll have to reposition without guests.

@twangster, we are booked for the Adventure repositioning next year that is doing just that...12 nighter from Ft. Lauderdale going to ABCs, Antigua, St. Thomas and ending in Cape Liberty, NJ. 

And that sailing appears to be booking well--with all the "sales", the price has gone up considerably since we booked.

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I keep hearing that Symphony of the Seas will be moved to Galveston, replacing Liberty of the Seas by Fall 2021, so I assume she will be replaced by the new Oasis-class Ship currently in construction. It would not shock me at all if Odyssey ends up going to Galveston as well replacing Adventure of the Seas with the Grand opening of the New RCCL Terminal. Just makes a lot of sense due to the fact that RCCL is investing a lot of money with the new terminal, and the Galveston cruise industry is booming!

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Found an interesting article ... Jason Liberty is Royal's CFO.  

https://www.fool.com/investing/2019/05/08/what-royal-caribbean-wants-investors-to-know.aspx

     Geographic hits and misses

     It's rare that booking patterns are strong in all regions of the world and like most years, we are seeing some variation this year.

          -- Liberty (on the call)

      The cruise line operator noted strong demand in the core Caribbean geography that accounts for about half of its global business. Volumes were surprisingly weak in Europe, meanwhile, likely due to economic uncertainty around Brexit.

      The company is responding by shifting some assets toward the U.S., and that move highlights a key advantage of Royal Caribbean's diversified approach to deploying its ships. "We've built a business model that can play in the rain," Liberty told me, so sluggish demand in any one area isn't likely to drag down overall results.

 

Keep in mind we have a splurge in inventory available in Europe at the moment.  On top of the regular ships, Oasis is there now in 2019, Anthem and Allure coming in 2020.  It seems bookings are soft in Europe so they are responding by putting their ships where they make more money, the US.  The mega ship "invasion" is being done to accommodate 5 year mandatory dry docks (and while out of service the AMPing or refresh that most of us care about) but it seems the European market can't support all that inventory.    

That may be an opportunity for some of us, potential lower prices to stimulate bookings but in the long term it doesn't bode well for a big ship seasonal presence in Europe. 

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Another interesting component is on-board spending.  Current financial results versus the competition are largely being buoyed up by on-boarding revenue.  

From the article above:

  • Net revenue yields were up 9.3% for the quarter, which is approximately 150 basis points higher than the midpoint of our previous guidance. The main drivers of the positive variance were continued strength in onboard revenue and better than anticipated close-in demand 

It's well known that some markets don't follow the US model of gratuity and in Europe it's more common for guests to remove the DSC or Daily Service Charge.  That is their well within their rights to do so but it hurts the bottom line with crew contracts when Royal has to make it up.   

It's been suggested before that some regions are tighter with their money and that plays directly into on-board revenue variation between regions.  

European vacations are often planned well in advance.  Close in bookings are less of a thing in Europe. 

Combine that with the practice of DSC removal and ships make less on-board revenue in some regions versus the US.  

Combine that with soft European bookings and the result is...  put ships where they make more money, the US.  Why not?  Follow the money.

Royal has already stated Odyssey is coming to the US, it's just a matter of where.

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They need to be careful not to put too many ships in the US, or the supply glut will lead to lower revenues here, too. Maybe not in total on-board spend, but with too many ship choices available they could find themselves having to drop the baseline fares by a significant (to them) margin to get the ships full.

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I can't help thinking that as far as slow sales in Europe are concerned, it's less likely to be about Brexit and more likely to be about the astronomically high prices.

We are doing the Caribbean again this year because it's actually cheaper for us to fly all the way across the pond and cruise there than it is to cruise in our own back yard. 

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9 minutes ago, FionaMG said:

I can't help thinking that as far as slow sales in Europe are concerned, it's less likely to be about Brexit and more likely to be about the astronomically high prices.

We are doing the Caribbean again this year because it's actually cheaper for us to fly all the way across the pond and cruise there than it is to cruise in our own back yard. 

Yeah, I wondered about that when I read it.  It occurred to me the journalist may have jumped to the conclusion or Brexit was suggested since it's a safer scapegoat.  

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27 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

They need to be careful not to put too many ships in the US, or the supply glut will lead to lower revenues here, too. Maybe not in total on-board spend, but with too many ship choices available they could find themselves having to drop the baseline fares by a significant (to them) margin to get the ships full.

And this is a bad thing for the average consumer?

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1 minute ago, tiny260 said:

And this is a bad thing for the average consumer?

You seem to be confused. We're talking about what Royal is going to do that's best for Royal, not for us. ?

The day a company home-based in a capitalist country does something that's against their own interests is the day I know to start looking out my window for the incoming asteroid.

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1 minute ago, JLMoran said:

You seem to be confused. We're talking about what Royal is going to do that's best for Royal, not for us. ?

The day a company home-based in a capitalist country does something that's against their own interests is the day I know to start looking out my window for the incoming asteroid.

No, not confused, just know it's not going to happen, as you say.

We all know or think we know, that if Royal keeps building ships at this rate that some of the older smaller ships are either going to be sold or shuffled off to a different market.

That's just good business. Keep supply and demand where they want it.

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26 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

They need to be careful not to put too many ships in the US, or the supply glut will lead to lower revenues here, too. Maybe not in total on-board spend, but with too many ship choices available they could find themselves having to drop the baseline fares by a significant (to them) margin to get the ships full.

There in lies the ingredients of the secret sauce. 

Shake up the 3/4 night short cruise market which is often used to acquire new never-cruised or a loyalist from another brand wanting to sample.

Shake up the NYC area with Oasis.

Shake up Galveston with the tantalizing promise of Oasis class. 

Give Florida the long sought after Quantum class to shake it up. 

What they aren't addressing are Empress and Majesty plus Vision class.   Here we are in May and nothing on the books for Empress or Majesty in 2020 due to the uncertainty of Cuba.  We might be seeing these ships depart from the fleet reducing Caribbean inventory and trimming the fleet back to 24, 25 when Odyssey arrive.  

They've hinted at the West Coast but are being very cautious there, for good reason.  

And what of Vision class?  They are getting older and now their mandatory maintenance windows is down from 5 years to something more frequent due to their age.  At some point they too have to go, or at least some of them making way for additional ships.  

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2 minutes ago, tiny260 said:

No, not confused, just know it's not going to happen, as you say.

We all know or think we know, that if Royal keeps building ships at this rate that some of the older smaller ships are either going to be sold or shuffled off to a different market.

That's just good business. Keep supply and demand where they want it.

We will probably say good bye to Vision class sooner or later.

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53 minutes ago, JLMoran said:

They need to be careful not to put too many ships in the US, or the supply glut will lead to lower revenues here, too. Maybe not in total on-board spend, but with too many ship choices available they could find themselves having to drop the baseline fares by a significant (to them) margin to get the ships full.

Well if looking at capacity per week, on average, base on a 7D cruise(I know all cruises are not 7 days)...that about 83,150 cruisers a week, not at max, on all available ships. Cowboys or Giants stadium has about as many fans at any given Sunday, on one day for one game. Keep in mind, not all of the 83,150 total cruisers, are cruising the U.S. 

I honestly don't see a possible issue with filling ships, if adding more vessels to the U.S. market. I'm pretty sure Royal is not considering flagging a Vision Class ship solely for the Hawaiian market; but, I sure wish they would. I'm sure there is a possible reduction in revenue; otherwise, they may have done it by now...however, I'm sure money can be made up with additional U.S. & Intl sailing, if not equal to or better than, one of there current lower renue sailing.

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46 minutes ago, mpoole3 said:

Great ideas / feedback on where she will go in Fall 2020.  But it looks like the majority said she's headed to Long Beach, CA!!

I think the biggest hint for Odyssey is that Ovation is not going back to Alaska in 2021. It's re-positioning to Singapore instead. Something needs to replace it?? If Odyssey is in Long Beach in Fall 2020 then that makes a lot of sense.

Also the name: Odyssey - sound more like something you would do in Alaska than the Caribbean! ?

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16 hours ago, FionaMG said:

I can't help thinking that as far as slow sales in Europe are concerned, it's less likely to be about Brexit and more likely to be about the astronomically high prices.

We are doing the Caribbean again this year because it's actually cheaper for us to fly all the way across the pond and cruise there than it is to cruise in our own back yard. 

The pricing for Europe cruises with royal has gone up over 60% from 5 years ago that's why there isn't the bloody demand! I too find it cheaper to fly to the US and cruise compared to taking a med cruise on an oasis class ship.

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17 minutes ago, J_Keeble said:

The pricing for Europe cruises with royal has gone up over 60% from 5 years ago that's why there isn't the bloody demand! I too find it cheaper to fly to the US and cruise compared to taking a med cruise on an oasis class ship.

Absolutely! We were really keen to sail Anthem this year while she's over on this side of the pond but the prices were just stupidly high (which seems to be a general trend anyway for their sailings from the UK, regardless of ship).

And when you factor in the European lines, particularly MSC and Costa, stepping up the quality of their service, with exciting new ships at comparably much more reasonable prices,  it's easy to see that Royal are simply pricing themselves out of the European market.

Not to mention the fact that they have some of their oldest, smallest ships doing some of the itineraries. I think they forget that while the ship may be less important to cruisers coming over from the US who understandably want to spend every possible minute visiting the ports of call, that is not necessarily the case for us here in Europe, since we can jump on a low-cost flight and spend several days in those cities for peanuts. We would really like to do the Greek Isles and/or Croatia but there's no way we're going to do it on a ship like Rhapsody, however much we like the Royal product.

I really think Royal needs to rethink its strategy for Europe.

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1 minute ago, J_Keeble said:

ah I'm on rhapsody in 9 days time and I love her, I love big and small ships. its what you make of it I suppose. But just seeing the announcement on independence not coming to the UK next year has just changed the game all together.

I'm sure you'll have a great time. I myself would probably be fine on Rhapsody but hubby is easily bored and needs to be entertained so for him Rhapsody just doesn't cut it. :4_joy:

Where did you see the announcement that Indy isn't coming to the UK next year? What are they bringing over instead? (I haven't looked that far ahead.)

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2 minutes ago, FionaMG said:

I'm sure you'll have a great time. I myself would probably be fine on Rhapsody but hubby is easily bored and needs to be entertained so for him Rhapsody just doesn't cut it. :4_joy:

Where did you see the announcement that Indy isn't coming to the UK next year? What are they bringing over instead? (I haven't looked that far ahead.)

take a look in the news and rumours topic area :)

 

but heres the link

 

https://help.royalcaribbean.co.uk/hc/en-gb/sections/360004499552-Independence-of-the-Seas-2020-changes-to-sailings

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On 5/8/2019 at 12:12 PM, twangster said:

What they aren't addressing are Empress and Majesty plus Vision class.   Here we are in May and nothing on the books for Empress or Majesty in 2020 due to the uncertainty of Cuba.  We might be seeing these ships depart from the fleet reducing Caribbean inventory and trimming the fleet back to 24, 25 when Odyssey arrive.  

They've hinted at the West Coast but are being very cautious there, for good reason.  

And what of Vision class?  They are getting older and now their mandatory maintenance windows is down from 5 years to something more frequent due to their age.  At some point they too have to go, or at least some of them making way for additional ships.  

Hopefully someone is thinking about plugging in longer sailing to the Southern Caribbean, since pulling out the Radiance class ships.

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On 5/8/2019 at 12:20 PM, Zambia-Zaire said:

Well if looking at capacity per week, on average, base on a 7D cruise(I know all cruises are not 7 days)...that about 83,150 cruisers a week, not at max, on all available ships. Cowboys or Giants stadium has about as many fans at any given Sunday, on one day for one game. Keep in mind, not all of the 83,150 total cruisers, are cruising the U.S. 

I honestly don't see a possible issue with filling ships, if adding more vessels to the U.S. market. I'm pretty sure Royal is not considering flagging a Vision Class ship solely for the Hawaiian market; but, I sure wish they would. I'm sure there is a possible reduction in revenue; otherwise, they may have done it by now...however, I'm sure money can be made up with additional U.S. & Intl sailing, if not equal to or better than, one of there current lower renue sailing.

That is an interesting comparison.  I never thought of it that way. 

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  • 4 months later...
On 5/5/2019 at 7:50 PM, mpoole3 said:

With Odyssey of the seas coming out Fall of 2020.   Where do you think she's headed?   NCL & Carnival both have brand new ships headed out of Long Beach, CA (LA).  Perhaps Royal will send her my way?  

1549040916_Odyssey-of-the-Seas-MG-5760.jpg

Well lets look at the bright side look at all those RR points your going to be earning. 

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