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DDemuth

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Posts posted by DDemuth

  1. Folks,

    There is a rationale for these actions, whether you may agree or not.  Google "flatten the curve".  Briefly, by buying time preventing the expansion of this illness, one increases the chances that the healthcare system will not become overburdened with patients needing critical care.  The model acknowledges that inconvenience and lifestyle disruptions will occur, but the alternative could be much worse.

    That said, does anybody know where I can score some TP???

  2. 5 hours ago, stringfellow said:

    My real decision is do I make the final payment and roll the dice knowing if Italy is still on the "hot list", RCL may cancel the Italy ports and possibly substitute them for something else (not sure Allure can dock in many places due to the size)?   I really want to go, but I don't want to find out at the last minute that RCL cancels the Italy ports, adds additional sea days, and refunds the excursion costs.    

     

    Do you have insurance?  My family has booked Allure in July, so we are in the same position as you.  First, it is too far in advance to be predicting how this disease will progress into the summer months.  Clinically, this virus is similar to the SARS outbreak of 2002-2003 which started in Nov 2002 and was declared contained in early June 2003.  This virus is similar, but then again, no guarantees.  Could be a non-event by June/July.  Our plans are to make final payment and see what happens.  In addition, we also purchased an insurance policy where we can claim itinerary changes as a benefit, so if ports are denied, we can get some compensation.  Look at your policy for specific details.  

    You must also realize that covid-19 is in Spain, although not to the current extent that it is in Italy.  Are you comfortable flying into Barcelona given the possibility that you risk exposure before you embark?  Only you can answer that.  Hoping for the best for you and your family.

  3. This paper was published last week in J. Amer Med Assoc and describes a study of >44,000 confirmed cases (virus positive by PCR) of covid-19 in China.  

    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130?guestAccessKey=bdcca6fa-a48c-4028-8406-7f3d04a3e932&utm_source=For_The_Media&utm_medium=referral&utm_campaign=ftm_links&utm_content=tfl&utm_term=022420

     

    Interesting numbers reported:

    Spectrum of disease (N = 44 415)

    • Mild: 81% (36 160 cases)

    • Severe: 14% (6168 cases)

    • Critical: 5% (2087 cases)

     

    Case-fatality rate

    • 2.3% (1023 of 44 672 confirmed cases)

    • 14.8% in patients aged ≥80 years (208 of 1408)

    • 8.0% in patients aged 70-79 years (312 of 3918)

    • 49.0% in critical cases (1023 of 2087)

     

    Note that all of the fatalities occurred in the critically ill patient cohort which comprised only 5% of total infected individuals.  Critical illness was defined as patients exhibiting acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS), septic shock and/or other organ failure.  This cohort consisted primarily of individuals with other co-morbidities.  No deaths were recorded in the >42,000 confirmed cases of mild or severe disease.

     

  4. 45 minutes ago, KenCP said:

    Most insurance companies will cover you if you get sick, not because you do not want to travel unfortunately. If it becomes a pandemic then 95% of the insurance policies will not cover you.  

     

    Our position is not to cancel; too many variables.  But if the pandemic scenario plays out, then RCI may likely cancel cruises (or maybe should) and our insurance should cover that.  Our policy also covers changes in itineraries prior to departure, so even if the cruise goes and ports are changed, we can get some compensation and enjoy a few sea days. 

    And pandemic simply means that the virus is being community spread worldwide.  This may or may not impact how RCI responds.  To me, worst case scenario is to cancel after final payment before RCI decides what their position is.  

  5. On 2/24/2020 at 3:10 PM, Traveler said:

    For Allure on May , if the situation will continue to be problematic they might need to cancel as 3 out of the port are in Italy and there are very few ports that can handle Oasis class ships, the alternate will be to add more sea days , but who comes to Europe cruise for the sea days ?  

     

    Similar situation for us; Allure in July for the western Mediterranean.  No worries now; so much can change between now and then.  It is not known if SARS-CoV-2 is seasonal and might subside as the weather warms; the first potential vaccine was just sent to the NIAID for testing and other big Pharma are working feverishly to develop vaccine candidates; the virus has been cultured by the CDC and recently been made available to the scientific community, so better information on viral stability, efficiency of infection, etc. will be forthcoming in the near future.  So my plan is to wait this out and already have a good insurance policy if problems still exist in July.  We shall see.

  6. Ray,

    Your fridge seems to display unusual characteristics for a 2019-nCoV infection in that the Corona does not seem to be replicating.  Rather, I would wager that your virus titer is declining with time; and having a few Scots as colleagues, my guess is that your virus titer will be zero in about zero time.  Congrats!!  Your fridge is cured!!

  7. 21 hours ago, Kathleen said:

    Hot Stone Massage is fabulous. A real favorite. I have only done the 50 minutes and I found it to more than enough time. I have done it by myself and as a couples message and enjoyed both.

     

    Well hello, fellow Louisvillian.  We've always opted for the Swedish massage, but you may have us looking at the hot stones on our next cruise.  ?

     

  8. The complete genome sequences of numerous 2019-nCoV samples have been available for several weeks.  Analysis of these sequences showed that the new coronavirus is most similar to bat coronavirus, moreso than human SARS or MERS CoV.  From the abstract of this paper:

    "Taking advantage of all the genomic information currently available, we constructed a phylogenetic tree including also representatives of other coronaviridae, such as Bat coronavirus (BCoV) and SARS. We confirm high sequence similarity (>99%) between all sequenced 2019-nCoVs genomes available, with the closest BCoV sequence sharing 96.2% sequence identity, confirming the notion of a zoonotic origin of 2019-nCoV."

    Ceraolo and Giorgi.  2020.  Genomic variance of the 2019-nCoV coronavirus. J. Med Virol.  doi: 10.1002/jmv.25700

     

    Also, see here:

    https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/summary.html

     

  9. Our younger daughter will be graduating from college in May and our older daughter has been teaching middle school in London for the last 2 years.  With the prospect of having both girls working to establish their respective careers in both the US and UK, this summer seemed like the last time that we could vacation as a family in the foreseeable future.   So last summer we booked Allure out of Barcelona for a Mediterranean cruise as kind of a last hurrah.  

    At the time of booking, it was evident that this would be a relatively expensive endeavor since Allure would be recently AMPed, we would need to arrange for three trans-Atlantic flights, hotels reservations in Barcelona for both pre- and post-cruise site seeing and we would be traveling at peak season in July 2020.  But bite the bullet and pay the fare.  We did.  Yesterday, I did a mock booking for our cruise and was surprised to see that current pricing was significantly below what we had paid.  In part, this was because a senior discount (yes, I'm old) and a Resident discount was available that had not been applied to our initial booking.

    Bottom line, a call to RCI to inquire resulted in a re-calculation of our reservation.  Not only were the discounts applied but the current BOGO60 and several other current sale discounts were added that reduced our costs by almost $1500.00.  Excursions and drink packages, here we come.....!   ?  My lucky day!  

    Barca, here we come!!

  10. 1 hour ago, TXcruzer said:

    I would not hesitate to book a cruise departing from San Juan, the areas you can reach from there in the deep southern Caribbean are beautiful. 

     

    Agree. We sailed from San Juan in Nov 2019.  Old San Juan was fine.  You can see some remnants of the hurricane damage on the taxi from the airport to the old town but nothing that will impact your trip.  In addition, we did not notice any significant language barriers on our trip.  Some people spoke Spanish, some English.  No problems.

  11. On 1/5/2020 at 5:44 PM, shortgirlc123 said:

    Hi all, 

    I have a stop in St John's, Antigua and Barbuda in February. I've never been to this port before and don't know much about it other than they have 365 beaches. Does anyone have recommendations for things to do there?

    Thanks!
    Amber

     

    If you are a Foodie, or interested in the local cuisine, check out Nicole's Table.  Excellent setting in a private home with great views, excellent food that everyone helps to prepare and rum punch.  Plenty of reviews online (e.g., TripAdvisor, etc), or just visit their web page (https://nicolestable.com/).

     

  12. 22 hours ago, Fairlynew said:

    Has anyone heard how those injured are healing?

     

    Latest I heard a couple of days ago was that an American couple have progressed well to the point that they may be allowed to fly back to the States to continue treatment.  That said, they received burns to <30% of their bodies.  The more seriously injured were burned over 90% and it is likely that they will need a lot of further care.

  13. 3 hours ago, Bob_KY said:

    The cure..  eat every 3 hours, fruity drink by the bath tub, apply hand sanitizer as you enter every room, and finally... go to the nearest high rise building and just stare at an elevator....

     

    You've got that Kentucky sense of humor...  but you forgot to purchase the all-day excursion to your current place of employment?

     

  14. On 12/19/2019 at 4:12 PM, Garretts1500 said:

    The on boat zip line requires “secure shoes”.  My wife assumed the shoes she wears to theme park on roller coasters or even on dragons breath zip line are secure...not so!  Shoes must have laces!!! I could not find this anywhere!  

    Obviously the rock walls include the same standard.  She didn’t pack shoes with laces so she couldn’t use these options!

    the ultimate abyss has certain rules that are hard to find!  Do not wear a tank top!!  Yes you’re in the sun in 80 degree weather but your expected to wear some type of sleeve so be sure to do that...otherwise it’s a trip to the room!

     

    You're right.  Easiest solution would be to state the rules specifically so everyone is aware ahead of time.  But I'm not surprised about the restrictions.  My guess; On the zip line, a shoe comes off and would fall 9 decks onto public space.  On the rock wall, it falls 40 feet and might hit or distract the individual holding your tether line.  As for the abyss, there are several threads describing brush burns that occurred if an arm was extended.  Long sleeves might offer some protection.  

  15. 39 minutes ago, SpeedNoodles said:

    …. I don't ever really feel the movement on the ship - it's only on land....

     

    It's a grand conspiracy.  The reality is that modern cruise ships are designed so that they are completely stable even in the roughest of seas.  No  movement whatsoever!  It's the land that's moving after you disembark.  Tectonics theory have yet to explain the phenomenon...

     

     

  16. Not my mistake, but...  A few years ago a neighbor and some of her family members booked a cruise and asked my youngest daughter and a friend of hers to come along.  We paid our share and threw in some discretionary money.  Well, the friend didn't realize that she needed her passport to board and showed up with just a drivers license.  She was denied boarding, and the rest of the party couldn't leave her abandoned at the port some 700 miles from home, so the entire trip was aborted.  They ended up finding an inexpensive hotel on the beach near the port and spent the 4 days as a beach vacation.  

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