Few points on this:
Cruise lines already have some boilerplate language in their cruise passenger contracts that states passengers are responsible for having all vaccinations required by destination ports before boarding (e.g., you need a "yellow card" in your passport when traveling to Ghana, showing you got the required Yellow Fever vaccination; not the best example when there are no cruises to Ghana that I'm aware of, but it's a real example my daughter ran into). So even if the cruise lines themselves don't make any explicit statements about this, and even allow you to board without any proof at all, you could find yourself stuck on board when you get to the destination port of your dreams because they require proof of vaccination and you never got the vaccine or brought whatever proof was needed.
Be sure to do all due diligence about your destination ports before boarding, and if you want to be able to cancel with full refund then do it before final payment date.
Be reassured that while the news about people having anaphylaxis reactions to the shot are making big headlines, the actual percentage of people this is happening to is quite small compared to the number of shots already given. High single-digit / barely double-digit numbers of allergic reactions, vs. hundreds of thousands of injections so far. The concern is mostly coming from the fact that some of the people who've had bad reactions never reacted to a vaccine shot before now. Scientists are already scrambling to put together a study and isolate the cause, so we'll likely have an initial answer in a few months.
I realize that cruising out of the US is a big focus here because we're principally a US- and Canada-based forum; but keep in mind that even if the US takes an extra year to get our spit together, cruising out of other countries (IMO) has a much better chance of getting back in shape by next summer simply because those other countries have been getting their spit together and working their butts off to keep cases decently low. Now that the vaccine is going out, I think there'll be a better shot of being able to take a cruise overseas next year than we'll ever see out of the US; but you can bet your bippy that the government of whatever country you sail out of in '21 (and quite possibly '22) will be demanding proof of vaccination before letting you in, no matter what country you hail from.
While it is true as Twangster points out that the mRNA vaccines (the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines currently in circulation) won't "neutralize" SARS-CoV-2 no vaccine in history has been introduced with eradication as an absolute endpoint. Disease eradication is a result of limiting the pathogenicity of a virus until it is no longer capable of producing a disease, e.g., polio, TB.
If you read about such things, there are still polio and TB outbreaks that are a result of populations in sufficient scale not receiving polio or TB vaccines. Malaria is another example. The disease or pathogen seems to disappear until it reappears. There is no vaccine but it is preventable with widely employed mitigation measures and pharmaceutical prophylaxis. HIV is another - no vaccine but transmission is preventable with condum use and medications to reduce viral load in infected persons making them less likely to spread the disease. The cruise industry has laid out exactly how it intends to prevent and contain C-19 on its cruise ships if allowed to re-start cruising. That's a start.
Think back to the WHO goal of "flattening the curve" articulated in February and March. The point of that was to keep hospitals and medical staff that were treating COVID-19 patients from being overwhelmed. It's a good thing to keep that in mind. The same thing applies with the current goal for SARS-CoV-2 vaccines with a slightly more ambitious goal. Keeping people out of the hospital altogether so that the disease that SARS-CoV-2 produces, C-19, is benign enough to be much like the common cold. That goal is entirely achievable with a vaccine just like it is with the Influenza vaccines that targets the H1N1 pathogen. The disappearance of the SARS-CoV-2 pathogen may ensue, it may not. That all depends on it's survival trajectory which is only now being studied.
Are we to expect the cruise lines to eradicate the virus on board it's ships for them to re-start cruising? Nope. he CDC asked the cruise lines to come up with protocols to reduce the risks that COVID would be introduced to shipboard life by passengers or crew and that if a case developed it could be adequately contained and the infected could be disembarked without causing undue burden on port facilities and local hospitals. They did that.
This concept is important to understand as it relates to the question of whether cruise lines, upon resumption of revenue operations, will require vaccines to board a ship. I believe that they won't because they believe their layered approach is already pretty good. The cruise lines don't currently require immunizations for influenza or many other common pathogens still floating around out there. It is a passenger's responsibility to comply with local port of call immunizations should that passenger want to disembark in a local requiring specific immunizations to do so.
There is, however, a larger question that bears upon restarting at all let alone the question of requiring or not requiring a vaccine. Will the CDC require the COVID pandemic to be at an end in the US before cruises can restart - vaccine or not? If so, when will the COVID pandemic be declared at an end? By definition, a pandemic ends when the virus responsible for it is no longer prevalent. Right now, although it varies by country, a community spread ends when prevalence is < 5%. Another way to look at that is the number of tests it takes to find 1 active COVID-19 case. Experts seem to think that if you're only finding 1 case in 150 to 200 tests administered, the virus is contained.
The US has a long way to go before national prevalence rate is < 5% or we're only finding one C_19 case in every 150 or so tests. National prevalence is about 10% right now. Some states with very high prevalence rates skew the national average upward. New cases are running about one in every 50-90 tests nationally. In FL the state average is about 9% and in Broward County, home of Port Everglades, its between 6.5% and 8% most of the time. In Miami its close to the state average, in Orlando, closer to Broward Co. I point this out to illustrate how the restart of cruising shouldn't be pegged on national but rather local prevalence rates, vaccine requirements or not. The CDC may stand on a national prevalence rate, though, now that a vaccine is available. Local numbers would be better indicators for a restart. Local numbers < 5% are probably achievable but it's going to take a while. If we can get past the hysteria of the holiday surge, we're going to see numbers back under 5% in FL counties hosting cruise ports probably by mid-February, early March. Caribbean ports will be next and European ports will follow prevalence rates in US ports. I'd urge folks to watch these prevalence numbers by country, region, state and county then keep an eye on the mood of the CDC to find out when it's likely cruising will restart and when it does if there will be a vaccine mandate to board.
I can’t imagine the company making such a huge infrastructure investment without taking into consideration the high probability of a direct hit by a major hurricane. I’m sure many of the structures will sustain damage...as will many of the areas susceptible to the tidal surges accompanying the storm. There is plenty of historical data to guide their storm damage assessment and recovery planning. The island has been transformed into a hugely successful money-making project and they will work as quickly as possible to bring it back to full operating status as soon as possible. We just need to keep in mind the local Bahamians who do the work on the island and hope that they, and their families, remain safe and secure.
